Vinod Khosla, a Silicon Valley investor, claims that technology will replace 80 percent of doctors; I agree. A general practitioner's main function is diagnosis which is essentially decision making, and can be replaced by an algorithm driven device. Data input of symptoms, tests, measurements, etc. can be handled by a nurse or someone that is trained just for the device.
Algorithm based diagnoses would be objective and would be unaffected by a patient's emotional state. The devices would also know in which rare cases a human doctor would be advantageous for diagnosis and could defer in such situations. Additionally these devices will always be up to date with the most current medical understanding without costly, lengthy retraining.
What I find most exciting is if these diagnosing devices were coupled with recording devices that captured patients response to various treatments, the information captured could be data mined and help improve treatments by customizing treatments based on factors such as ethnicity and medical history.
A medical system without 80% fewer doctors would massively lower health care costs while improving overall health. However I'm highly doubtful that this revolution will take place first in the U.S. due to the very strong medical lobby and exisiting regulations. Instead I bet that BRIC nations, especially India or China, that have strong tech industries with a large populations will be the first to implement these algorithm driven medical diagnosing devices. I could see state sponsored initiative that encourage investment into this space.
If Watson can beat the cleverest human today, then a Dr. Watson of tomorrow can surely beat most doctors.